Posts

What if Guam and Puerto Rico voted?

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While the Electoral College system causes the US presidential election to hang in the balance, it's easy to get distracted by an interesting feature in the bizarre framework for electing the president. There are some good questions that can be asked, and could lead to a better system. There are areas of the US that aren't states: do they get to vote? It turns out there are two categories.  In the first, it turns out the 3 representatives from Washington DC count as votes in the Electoral College, even though they don't vote in Congress. That's what brings the Electoral College to 538 = (3 + 435 + 100). The other Territories of the United States have no representation in the Electoral College, but do apparently have representation at party conventions. Curiously, Guam did run a presidential ballot just to make this point. Totalling up all the Territories, the Electoral College disenfranchises a population of up to 4 million, or about 1% of the US population, based on ...

Defining Environmental Science

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Here's how the popular textbooks we use define Environmental Science. Miller and Spoolman's definition used in 2018-2020 is succinct: Environmental science is a study of connections in nature. It is an interdisciplinary study of (1) how the earth (nature) works and has survived and thrived, (2) how humans interact with the environment, and (3) how we can live more sustainably. It strives to answer several questions: What environmental problems do we face? How serious are they? How do they interact? What are their causes? How has nature solved such problems? How can we solve such problems? To answer such questions, environmental science integrates information and ideas from fields such as biology, chemistry, geology, geography, economics, political science, and ethics. Miller, G.T. & Spoolman, S.E. 2020. Living in the environment, Boston, Cengage Learning. An even more succinct definition present in the 2007 edition of the textbook has been removed. Environmental science is ...

Covid Accounting: International Arrivals

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There are some spectacular parallels between getting science into decisions to manage the coronavirus crisis, and the much slower issue of growth-beyond-limits in greenhouse gas emissions and freshwater nutrient accounting. In general, I think one of the most critical needs science can help with is fairly simple, unglamorous tables of accounts. Let's hide that in the back for a moment, and consider the interesting and somewhat surprising result. Social media furore suggests a need for this as we try to understand if New Zealand's level 4 lockdown is working. The problem I see is that a lot people continue to assume growth means cases are spreading, and possibly that there are many undetected cases. Half New Zealand's cases are still from overseas travel, and this was the vast majority of cases until the last 10 days. So with arrival stats now available, that can be paired with infection rates in countries of origin (I used Johns Hopkins CSSE time series ), what does a base...

My favourite lecture ever, and what it says about fighting COVID-19

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I'd like to tell you about my favourite lecture of my entire time as a student, on February 20, 1996. It is extraordinarily relevant in today's world, because it described models for epidemics. I remember because it came with a convincing case that much can be learned from this class of models by any student applying models to inform urgent decisions. It's a lecture that I've kept learning from for the last 24 years. The lecture was given by John Harte at Berkeley, and part of a class on environmental modelling co-taught with Zac Powell. Many may know John for his introductory  Consider a Spherical Cow book, and a subset of the lectures eventually became the more advanced  Cylindrical Cow book. I loved it because it felt like drinking math out of a firehose. Apparently, I was thirsty. And in terms of differential equations, these models are archetypal, the maths equivalent of the greatest novels. Let me first say, don't for a minute dismiss cows as irrelevant: Ne...

Seeking Doctoral Candidates: Incorporating Mātauranga and Science Together in Multi-Criteria Decision Making

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We seek a PhD student enthusiastic to forge progress at the nexus of mātauranga with the use of quantitative scientific data in environmental management. The student will work with leaders in Te Arawa Lakes Trust, the University of Waikato and NIWA within a kaupapa built on the foundation of  Te Tūāpapa o ngā Wai o Te Arawa . The project aims to create a future in which the process of freshwater decision-making recognises and communicates Te Arawa values while defining and protecting water quality in the Te Arawa Lakes and wider catchments of the region – ki uta ki tai.  Te mā o te wai e rite ana kia kite I ngā tapuwae ā te koura The quality of the water is such that you can see the footsteps of the koura Students should meet the requirements to enter a PhD programme at the University of Waikato in an appropriate discipline. Consideration of application will begin immediately and continue until an applicant is found or the closing date of February 12. Contacts:  Prof Troy...

Submission on MfE's Freshwater (Action for Healthy Waterways) Consultation

If you're interested in my submission to MfE's Freshwater (Action for Healthy Waterways) Consultation , I've pasted the text below, or you can see it as a pdf . Personal submission on Action for healthy waterways: A discussion document on national direction for our essential freshwater This submission is from Prof Troy Baisden, holding the Bay of Plenty Regional Council Chair in Freshwater Science at the University of Waikato. My background spans watershed science and climate change, including a PhD in Soil Science from the Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management at the University of California, Berkeley. I have spent a significant proportion of 19 years in New Zealand research working across the science-policy interfaces. I am a Principal Investigator in Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand’s transdisciplinary Centre of Research Excellence in complexity and networks. I have contributed to the New Zealand Freshwater Sciences Society’s (NZFSS) submission and ha...