Posts

The Overseer Files

Image
Just before we all suddenly returned  to  a snap lockdown, and excellent use of scientific models to manage New Zealand COVID  response, we were wading through a much less rosy review of one of Aotearoa's most important scientific models - used for farm nutrient management and water quality regulation. I had prepared some comments at the Science Media Centre's (SMC) request for Expert Reaction as an Environmental Scientist and as President of the NZ Association of Scientists . Neither they nor science correspondents in the media have time for a deep dive into the topic at the moment so I'm filing my comments here for discussion. An MPI-commissioned  peer review report  has concluded that key aspects of the Overseer model used for water quality regulation are not fit for purpose. The Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) has  described  the report as “devastating”, while those responsible for the model defend it to users.  The contrast confirms an undesirable

On the 'How to Science' debate

Image
A recent letter-to-the-editor raises a familiar question: is there a singular 'Science' to defend?  There have always been schisms in science. Their visibility comes and goes. Perhaps the entry of mātauranga into consideration in Aotearoa resembles the emergence of global change issues (during 1990-2005), most notably climate change, that defied the scale and pace of 'normal' scientific activity. Here, normal was generally defined by Kuhn. It seems to me that one of our most prominent scientists has carefully warned us about these debates. I was perhaps lucky to be educated as an earth and environmental scientist comfortable with multiple epistemologies. Yet, this luck allows me to see a painful history. There has been long-standing schism between the often dominant experimental sciences, which follow a linear or iterative method of hypothesis testing well known as 'the scientific method' versus the historical sciences, which have so artfully unwoven the histor

What if Guam and Puerto Rico voted?

Image
While the Electoral College system causes the US presidential election to hang in the balance, it's easy to get distracted by an interesting feature in the bizarre framework for electing the president. There are some good questions that can be asked, and could lead to a better system. There are areas of the US that aren't states: do they get to vote? It turns out there are two categories.  In the first, it turns out the 3 representatives from Washington DC count as votes in the Electoral College, even though they don't vote in Congress. That's what brings the Electoral College to 538 = (3 + 435 + 100). The other Territories of the United States have no representation in the Electoral College, but do apparently have representation at party conventions. Curiously, Guam did run a presidential ballot just to make this point. Totalling up all the Territories, the Electoral College disenfranchises a population of up to 4 million, or about 1% of the US population, based on

Defining Environmental Science

Image
Here's how the popular textbooks we use define Environmental Science. Miller and Spoolman's definition used in 2018-2020 is succinct: Environmental science is a study of connections in nature. It is an interdisciplinary study of (1) how the earth (nature) works and has survived and thrived, (2) how humans interact with the environment, and (3) how we can live more sustainably. It strives to answer several questions: What environmental problems do we face? How serious are they? How do they interact? What are their causes? How has nature solved such problems? How can we solve such problems? To answer such questions, environmental science integrates information and ideas from fields such as biology, chemistry, geology, geography, economics, political science, and ethics. Miller, G.T. & Spoolman, S.E. 2020. Living in the environment, Boston, Cengage Learning. An even more succinct definition present in the 2007 edition of the textbook has been removed. Environmental science is

Covid Accounting: International Arrivals

Image
There are some spectacular parallels between getting science into decisions to manage the coronavirus crisis, and the much slower issue of growth-beyond-limits in greenhouse gas emissions and freshwater nutrient accounting. In general, I think one of the most critical needs science can help with is fairly simple, unglamorous tables of accounts. Let's hide that in the back for a moment, and consider the interesting and somewhat surprising result. Social media furore suggests a need for this as we try to understand if New Zealand's level 4 lockdown is working. The problem I see is that a lot people continue to assume growth means cases are spreading, and possibly that there are many undetected cases. Half New Zealand's cases are still from overseas travel, and this was the vast majority of cases until the last 10 days. So with arrival stats now available, that can be paired with infection rates in countries of origin (I used Johns Hopkins CSSE time series ), what does a base

My favourite lecture ever, and what it says about fighting COVID-19

Image
I'd like to tell you about my favourite lecture of my entire time as a student, on February 20, 1996. It is extraordinarily relevant in today's world, because it described models for epidemics. I remember because it came with a convincing case that much can be learned from this class of models by any student applying models to inform urgent decisions. It's a lecture that I've kept learning from for the last 24 years. The lecture was given by John Harte at Berkeley, and part of a class on environmental modelling co-taught with Zac Powell. Many may know John for his introductory  Consider a Spherical Cow book, and a subset of the lectures eventually became the more advanced  Cylindrical Cow book. I loved it because it felt like drinking math out of a firehose. Apparently, I was thirsty. And in terms of differential equations, these models are archetypal, the maths equivalent of the greatest novels. Let me first say, don't for a minute dismiss cows as irrelevant: Ne

Seeking Doctoral Candidates: Incorporating Mātauranga and Science Together in Multi-Criteria Decision Making

Image
We seek a PhD student enthusiastic to forge progress at the nexus of mātauranga with the use of quantitative scientific data in environmental management. The student will work with leaders in Te Arawa Lakes Trust, the University of Waikato and NIWA within a kaupapa built on the foundation of  Te Tūāpapa o ngā Wai o Te Arawa . The project aims to create a future in which the process of freshwater decision-making recognises and communicates Te Arawa values while defining and protecting water quality in the Te Arawa Lakes and wider catchments of the region – ki uta ki tai.  Te mā o te wai e rite ana kia kite I ngā tapuwae ā te koura The quality of the water is such that you can see the footsteps of the koura Students should meet the requirements to enter a PhD programme at the University of Waikato in an appropriate discipline. Consideration of application will begin immediately and continue until an applicant is found or the closing date of February 12. Contacts:  Prof Troy Baisden  tbai